Impact of Climate Change in Indian Agriculture: a Major Threat for the survival of Indian Poor

Prabodh Devkota -2010-April- 13th

Like in many other parts of the world, India, one of the fastest growing economies of the world is under the threat of climate change and its impact. With a 42% of the total Indian population living under the global poverty line (1), the consequences of climate change particularly in agriculture, which has been a major source of livelihood to many poor people, could worsen the living conditions. It is noteworthy that two thirds of India makes its living from the land; peasantry class is thus on the verge of historical crisis.

The potential climate risks are challenging to both Indian economy as well as the livelihoods of a major chunk of Indian society. A third of the global poor live in India and no doubt that the poorest of the poor and the most marginalized sections of Indian population will be the major victims of these consequences. Within these contexts, as the Indian National Action Plan on Climate Change mentions ‘protecting the poor and vulnerable sections of society through an inclusive and sustainable development strategy, sensitive to climate change(2), translation of these commitments of the government into action will determine the future of the poor people in India.

Serious recurrent flood in 2002, 2003, 2004 in India, rainfall in Mumbai in 2005, droughts in Orissa 2000-2002, and similar such other events in various states of India have already displaced thousands of people and especially the poorest of the poor sections of Indian society. These trends indicate that similar incidences might occur which will have short term and long term effects in the lives of people by displacing them, due to death caused by these incidences, further more damaging the agrarian fields and the farming patterns in India. To add on this, ‘about 40 million hectares of land is flood- prone, including most of the river basins in the north and the north-eastern belt, affecting about 30 million people on an average each year. Such vulnerable regions may be particularly impacted by climate change (3)’.

There have been projections which tell that due to climate change impacts, there will be a huge internal as well as cross border migration with major destination to Indian cities. “Climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within India and from neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Refugee flows from other South Asian States are also possible. Internal migration will mainly be from rural areas into India’s cities, which are ill-equipped to deal with large influxes of environmental migrants (4). It is obvious that majority of such migrants are from the poor and then marginalized communities.

On the other, poor farmers in India have already started to face crisis caused due to droughts. Over 1,500 farmers committed mass suicide in the State of Chattisgarh in 2009. Poor farmers who had to pay debt were further caught up by crop failure due to adverse monsoon effects. Reports show that such trends have been increasing and this indicates the worst conditions that many poor farmers have been facing.

In many of the case analysis around farmer’s suicide, the debt part has been focused which is true, but it is also equally important to realize the impact of climate and its tragic consequences. Especially government and non government sectors addressing some of the policy issues should be able to comprehend both of these issues equally, including issues around adaption, so that farmers are somehow released of two traps of debt and climate impact. Within these already existing conditions, one can imagine the situation if the climate change impact mount adversely. Most importantly, given that 62% of the cropped area is still dependent on rainfall (MOEF. 2002); Indian agriculture continues to be fundamentally dependent on the weather. The impacts of climate change on agriculture are critical in India (5).

The reports say that, “close to 150,000 Indian farmers committed suicide in nine years from 1997 to 2005” While farm suicides have occurred in many States, nearly two thirds of these deaths are concentrated in five States- Maharastra, Karnataka, AP, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala- where just a third of the country’s population lives.”(The Hindu November 12 2007). National 15 Social Watch Coalition (NCWC), says that at least 11,387 farmers have committed suicide between 2001 and 2006. The number of farmers’ committing suicide was much higher during 1995- 2002, In Andhra Pradesh it was estimated that more than 3,000 farmers’ committed suicide- in fact, in Andhra Pradesh the beginning of suicide started during the late 1980s than in 1990s. The Christian Aid estimated that in 2004 2,115 farmers killed themselves, which comes to around 4,378 since 1998. There are others who estimated that between 1997 and January 2006, over 9,000 peasants took their lives due to the failure of cotton crops. In one case it is estimated that within one year (May 2004-September 2005) 2157 farmers’ committed suicide. In Maharashtra, the Vidharbha has become the centre of agrarian crisis- wherein the number of farmers committing suicide is much more. It is estimated that between June 2005 and May 2006 at least 500 farmers’ committed suicide in which majority of them are cotton growers. In fact, the Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research in Mumbai, which was commissioned to investigate into the rural crisis in Maharashtra in its report, “suicides of farmers in Maharashtra “ pinpointed that the Suicide Mortality Rate (SMR) for the male farmers had increased by three folds from 17 per 1,00,000 in 1995 to 53 in 2004. This is four times more than the national average. The suicide is now reported from Rajasthan, Haryana, M.P, Gujarat and Kerala too. Source: Farmers’ Suicide in India: Agrarian Crisis, Path of Development and Politics in Karnataka, Muzaffar Assadi, Professor Political Science, University of Mysore

There have been studies that show potential threat of climate change on the overall food productivity. Studies by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) indicate the possibility of a loss of 4–5 million tonnes in annual wheat production with every 1 oC rise in temperature1 even after considering the carbon fertilization effect (6).

Similar studies show that ‘an increase in temperature may have significant effect on the quality of cotton, fruits, vegetables, tea, coffee, aromatic and medicinal plants etc. the nutritional quality of cereals and pulses may also be moderately affected by this change in temperature(7).

Impacts on Indian Agriculture–Literature Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. Rao and Sinha (1994) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places. Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C . Source: Climate Change and Food Security in India Dr. N. Chattopadhyay, Director,India Meteorological Department, 2008, Presented in Dhaka

With these indications of low food production due to climate change, it is likely that a number of people specially the poor ones will suffer a lot. Nearly 50 percent of the world's hungry live in India, a low-income, food-deficit country. Around 35 percent of India's populations - 350 million - are considered food-insecure, consuming less than 80 percent of minimum energy requirements. Nutritional and health indicators are extremely low. Nearly nine out of 10 pregnant women aged between 15 and 49 years suffer from malnutrition and anemia (8). Within these already food deficit contexts, if things are not checked on time and if adaptation issues are not taken seriously and not addressed effectively, it is likely that a major chunk of Indian society will be forced to face serious humanitarian crisis.

Indian Meteorology Department and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (MS) in their studies show the trends of temperature resulting into heat waves, glaciers, droughts and floods, and sea level rise (9). ‘The brunt of environmental changes is expected to be very high in India due to greater dependence on agriculture, limited natural resources, alarming increase in human and livestock population, changing pattern in land use and socio-economic factors that pose a great threat in meeting the food, fibre, fuel and fodder requirement. There is a likelihood of a considerable impact on agricultural land-use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra- seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic transformation matters, soil erosion and availability of energy as a consequence of global warming, impacting agricultural production and hence, the nations’ food security. Global warming due to greenhouse effect is expected to impact hydrological cycle viz. precipitation, evapo-transpiration, soil moisture etc., which would pose new challenges for agriculture’(10). As of now all these studies very clearly show the potential threat of climate change and its impact in the agriculture in India.

In these contexts, most often within the dominant debates of climate change, the focus goes towards broader sectoral framework such as agriculture, industry, economy, forestry, water which is fair. However, often within these big frameworks, the issues of people are overshadowed whereas they are the ones to face the highest burden of such crisis. Till date climate change debates have been more technical which in a sense is also important however, there is a risk of missing the human face of it. Thus it is high time for the planners and policy think tank not to dissociate climate change discourse from people’s daily realities; it is important to keep the people in general and the poorest of the poor in the centre of climate change discourse.

In the coming days there will be a series of adaption efforts made by both the state and non state parties to improve the living conditions of people. However, unless there are honest efforts to engage poor farmers and common people within these initiatives, still a major chunk of Indian society will be forced to live in tragic conditions.

For feedback: secretariat@earthconcernasia.org
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… References and citations:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India- world bank
   
   
2. National Action Plan on Climate Change, India
   
   
3. National Action Plan on Climate Change, India
   
   
4. National Intelligence Council, Conference Report, 2009 May
   
   
5. Reference: The Suicide Economy Of Corporate Globalisation By Vandana Shiva
   
   
6. The Economics of Climate Change, A Review of Studies in the Context of South Asia with a Special Focus on India. Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics
   
   
7. European Parliament, Climate Change and India: Impacts, Policy Responses and a Framework for EU-India Cooperation, Jan 2008
   
   
8. The Economics of Climate Change, A Review of Studies in the Context of South Asia with a Special Focus on India. Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics
   
   
9. http://www.wfp.org/countries/india
   
   
10. http://www.eco-web.com/edi/index.htm