Reality Check! Climate Change: A major threat to Bangladesh

Prabodh Devkota - 2010-Apr-21

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become even more so as a result of climate change. Flood, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming years. Many would say that the signs of the future changes have already begun to become apparent. These changes will threaten the significant achievements Bangladesh has made over the last 20 years in increasing income and reducing poverty, and will make it more difficult to achieve the MDGs. Shortage of safe drinking water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the costal belt and in drought-prone areas in the north west of the country (1)

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2009 The above mentioned analysis of Government of Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, clearly mentions the pressure of Bangladesh in face of climate change related crisis. In the meantime, it also brings government perspective of realization and future action plans to mitigate such consequences.

Bangladesh is among one of the worst affected counties due to flood, drought and series of consequences caused by climatic extremes leading to starvation, displacement, death and health related problems to millions of Bangladeshi. The poorest of the poor are among the most vulnerable populations in face of these climatic extremes resulting into a number of climate refugees. There are alarming projections which tell that ‘by 2050 there will be over 35 millions climate refugees in Bangladesh’.

A country with 144 million people living on 144,000 km (2) of land, Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world, and with around 80% of its population living on less than US$2 a day, it is also one of the least developed countries (3). In these contexts, increasing incidences of natural disasters have worsened the situation of many people in Bangladesh. In last 25 years Bangladesh has experienced six severe floods, (1984, 87, 88, 98, 2004, and 2007). A severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh on average three years. These hard realities of Bangladesh clearly indicate towards the devastation made by natural disasters in the past and a trend of likely scenario for the future.

Agriculture remains the most important sector of Bangladeshi economy providing employment for 66 percent of the population (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistic 2003). Agriculture sector contributed to about 22% of total GDP, out of which crop sector shared 73%.About 85% of the population who are living in the rural areas of Bangladesh are mostly small, marginal and landless farmers and fully depended on agriculture (4). However, agricultural sector is also likely to be worst affected due to climate change consequences. Like many other South Asian countries agrarian economy remains as one of the major source of livelihood for majority of Bangladeshi. Major items in the food basket in Bangladesh are rice, wheat, pulses, potato, vegetables and fish. These food items account for almost 85 percent of the total calorie and protein intake. Rice and wheat alone contribute to 74 percent and 57 percent of the total per capita calorie and protein intake respectively (BBS 2003).

Almost 56% of the cultivated land now has access to irrigation facilities, developed mostly by private investment on small-scale shallow tubewells and power pumps (Hossain, 2003). Food accounts for bulk of the household expenditure of the poor. According to the 2000 Household Expenditure Survey, the poorest 40% of the population spend 70 percent of their income on food, and 35% on rice alone. Due to Nearly 40% of the population lives below the food consumption-based poverty line, lacking sufficient resources to afford diet of 2,122 kilocalories (kcal) per person per day, along with other basic necessities (5).

In the meantime, raising sea level and decreasing land, will have severe impact on the agro economy in Bangladesh. Moreover, Bangladesh like other South Asian countries such as Nepal and India, land distribution system is not equal. In these contexts, the likely threats to the poor and the most marginalized are visible. ‘In Bangladesh, only eight percent of rural households own over two hectares of land, which is just enough to produce food needed by a six-member family and stocks of a few months' requirements to tide over temporary crisis" (Hossain). Because of this shortage of land and the unpredictability of farming, "poverty is more frequent among farm households, especially small farms". This can be broken down farther based on the size of land owned by each family. Households with less than 1/2 an acre of land have a poverty rate of 57%, households that own between 1/2 an acre and 1.5 acre have a poverty ratio of 46%; and poverty reduces to 31% for households that own between 1.5 and 5 acres. (Anriquez et al 86) (6).

The entitlement of food based on household’s own production, which is relevant for the farm population, would depend on the access to land. In Bangladesh, the land resources are extremely scarce and have been shrinking under pressure of growing population. The reports of the Agricultural Censuses (GOB, 1987, 1999) show the land area operated by rural households has declined from 9.2 million ha in 1983-84 to 8.2 million ha in 1996, indicating that on average 82,000 ha of land is going out of cultivation every year(7). On the other, flood in Bangladesh is a normal phenomenon. Floods affect about 80% of land in Bangladesh (MPO, 1986). Agricultural land of the country is declining at the rate of 200 ha/day (9).

According to the projections of BARC (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council), in 2015 there will be a surplus of 1.213 m MT of food grains but an overall deficit of all others food items. Still according to another estimate, at the present population and agricultural growth rate, the food gap could be upto 5 million mt14. This variation in estimations of present and future Food Gap underscores the need for a more thorough, precise and regular tracking. There are approximately 27 food security and social safety net programmes in the country16 but the coverage is inadequate.17. Most of these programmes are also inflexible, unable to absorb transitory poor18 (at risk communities) and the effectiveness undermined by leakage and misappropriation.

On the other, lack of nutritious food is yet another major challenge impacting the health of common people. Malnutrition is one of the major public health problems in the country. 30% children born each year weigh below 2.5 kg. Child Nutrition Survey, 2000 revealed that among the preschool age children only 11.5 % of are nutritionally normal where 2.4% children are severely malnourished, 34.7% are moderately malnourished and 50.7% are mildly malnourished. Study revealed that in 1996-97 54% mothers were suffering from chronic energy deficiency, which decreased to 38% in 2003 and 37.9% in 2004.Survey revealed that only 60% pregnant ,65% lactating and 67% non lactating non pregnant women are non anaemic (10).

Warmer temperatures will affect crops and crop production, changes in rainfall patterns will be as important. Climate change will also influence the availability of water for human consumption and for food production. Loss of land through sees level rise and other consequences like erosion caused by wind and water will also affect the agriculture production. All the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) impact assessments recognized Bangladesh as one of the most susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change (11).

Historically floods, cyclone, and related natural disasters have taken millions of lives in Bangladesh. Such incidences have displaced many families, and have dismantled the development initiatives. It is also important to note here that though such disasters affect the entire country, poorest and the most marginalized and especially women and children are under the hardest hit. .During the second half of 2007, twin floods and a destructive cyclone in Bangladesh severely affected the food security of about 25 million people. The condition was further aggravated by the escalation of food grain prices brought about by rising international prices. Being a net food importing country, Bangladesh had to deal with soaring international prices, which eventually caused a significant increase in domestic prices (12).

The study likewise confirmed that from January 2007 to March 2008, people below the poverty line experienced an income erosion of 36.7% because of higher food prices (13). For example, Hurricane Aila (May 2009) damaged 26 districts in the south of the country, affecting 9 million people and causing production loss of around $99 million; Cyclone Sidr (November 2007) washed away 380 kilometres of embankments (14). With two extreme weather disasters, the year 2007 was unique in the disaster history of Bangladesh: widespread flooding occurred in July and August, quickly followed by the category-4 cyclone Sidr in November. The flood alone caused 3,363 casualties, affected 10 million people and reduced crop output by at least 13 percent. While the flood rehabilitation was underway, the coastal part of the country was hit again by a 240 kilometer-speed cyclone, Sidr, that affected 30 districts (out of 64), impacting the lives and livelihoods of 8.7 million people, and damaging nearly 1.5 million houses and some 4.1 million trees. With the highest disaster mortality rate in the world (UNDP Vulnerability Index), Bangladesh lost 516,239 men, women and children between 1970-2005, during 171 disaster events (15).

The country faced 48 major cyclones between 1584 and 2007. In November 1970, between 300,000 to 500,000 people died, and 400,000 houses and 3,500 schools were damaged. During a storm in May 1991, about 140,000 people died, and damage and displacement caused an estimated loss of US$2.4 billion. By most estimates, the intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase. Mirza (1992) estimated that the frequency of cyclones rose from 0.51/year in 1877-1964 to 1.12/year during 1965-1980 (16). Within these contexts of natural disasters it is also extremely important to account the cost on health caused by diseases during such incidences. A 2009 study, for example, found that the average annual cost of child diarrhoea per household in Dhaka slums is around 1 percent of household income (17).

While there has been a significant decrease in disaster-related deaths in Bangladesh, data is gender-neutral, limiting the ability to determine how men and women are affected. But a few studies following the cyclone and flood disasters of 1991 revealed that, among women aged 20-44, the death rate was 71 per 1000, compared to 15 per 1000 for men (UNEP 2005).

Although Bangladesh is an insignificant or virtually zero contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions that affect global climate change, it is ironic that it has to suffer so disastrously from the effects of climate change that are likely to occur in the coming decades (18). This is the tragedy of some of such developing countries. Consequently, such examples are strong evidence to influence the climate justice movements. As it is well known that greenhouse gas emissions are some of the major contributor of climate change, people in another part of the world without doing harm are becoming the innocent victims of such in justice.

Finally, as all above mentioned facts and figures clearly indicate the potential threat of climate related disasters in agriculture, food security, health and economy resulting into possible displacement of climate victims. This will have long term effects in the overall development process of Bangladesh. This is high time for Bangladesh to accept the reality and take immediate as well as long term actions to address some of these challenges.



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………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… References and citations:

1. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2009
   
   
2. IPCC: Working Group II (2007), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilityy http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm
   
   
3. UNDP, Human Development Report (2006)
   
   
4. Climate Change Impact on Food Sovereignty in Bangladesh, S. Jahangir Hasan Masum1 and M M Mahbub Hasan2
   
   
5. Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Mahabub Hossain, Firdousi Naher1 and Quazi Shahabuddin
   
   
6. Elizabeth Westendorf, Food Security in People's Republic of Bangladesh electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, 7-7-
   
   
7. Mahabub Hossain, Firdousi Naher1 and Quazi Shahabuddin National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), 2005
   
   
8. Food secutiry and climate change building adaption strategies for Bangladesh, Mozaharul Alam and Atiq Rahaman
   
   
9. SETTING A STANDARD CEREAL INTAKE FOR BALANCED NUTRITION IN BANGLADESH, Harun K.M. Yusuf, Ph. D32 and Asadul Islam33*
   
   
10. Climate Change Impact on Food Sovereignty in Bangladesh, S. Jahangir Hasan Masum1 and M M Mahbub Hasan
    
    
11. Supporting the Safety Net Programs for Food Security in Bangladesh, ADB
    
    
12. Z. Karim, CASEED. Climate Change Impacts on Bangladesh Agriculture and Food Security .Presentation delivered at “Economic Approaches to Climate Change and Poverty: a workshop for economic policy makers and researchers in Bangladesh”, 13-14 October 2009, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
    
    
13. Gender Human Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh
    
    
14. Alam, J.A. 2009. The prevalence and costs of child diarrhoea in the slums of Dhaka. SANDEE Working Paper.
    
    
15. Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh Anwar Ali*, Vol. 12: 109–116, 1999, CLIMATE RESEARCH
    
    
16. Anriquez, G., C. R. Lovendal, M. Noradanstad and K. Stamoulis. "Challenges in Addressing Hunger and Poverty in Bangladesh –The Case for a Twin Track Approach" Food Security in Bangladesh: PapersPresented in the National Workshop. IDB Bhadban, Agargaon, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 19-20 October 2005.
    
    
17. Hossain, Mahabub, Firdousi Naher, and Quazi Shahabuddin. "Food Security and Nutrition in Bangladesh:Progress and Determinants" The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, 2005:vol. 2, issue 2: 103-132 Lappé, Frances Moore, Josep
    
    
18. FOOD SECURITY AND ACCESS TO FOOD: PRESENT STATUS AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE Md. Ruhul Amin26 and Naser Farid
    
    
19. Food Security in Bangladesh Papers Presented in the National Workshop, -19-20, 2005 Bangladesh, Ministry of food and disaster management and World Food Program Bangladesh
    
    

Acknowledgement: We acknowledge all the references and authors.